Life in financial mkts: Equity F&O turnover surge Jan-Mar to aid listed BSE's topline

Equity F&O turnover surge Jan-Mar to aid listed BSE's topline

Apr 6, 2024

The sustained trend of rising turnover in equity derivatives and cash segments of BSE and National Stock Exchange in the quarter ended March is likely to reflect favourably in their topline performance during the quarter. The BSE Ltd is a listed company and its share price has apparently moved up sharply in the last few weeks in anticipation of improved revenue performance on the back of higher transaction charges income. The NSE is not listed.

The whole of the last financial year 2023-24 (Apr-Mar) has seen a doubling of notional turnover in equity derivatives segment of NSE, which is the larger of the two bourses in terms of turnover size. The BSE, on the other hand, has seen its market share in equity derivatives jump to 9.1% in 2023-24 from 0.9% in the previous year, led by relaunch of Sensex derivatives contracts in modified form in May last year followed by change in expiry date. In 2022-23, BSE's equity derivatives turnover was very low.

On the equity cash market front too, the turnover has been on a sharp uptrend in 2023-24. NSE's 51%--and BSE's 55%--jump in cash market turnover in 2023-24 marked a departure from the previous year (2022-23) when the turnover fell 20% on NSE, and also fell 23% on BSE.

Shares of BSE, which are listed on the NSE, was up 30% year to date as of Thursday. Investors have clearly been anticipating the impact of the sustained turnover the earnings performance of the exchange.

In Jan-Mar the equity derivatives notional turnover of BSE rose 54% sequentially to 4,336.45 trln rupees, while the options premium turnover rose still higher by 82% to 2.98 trln rupees. Over 99% of BSE's equity derivatives turnover is in options contracts, while that in futures contracts is negligible.

The BSE was charging a nominal flat fee of 500 rupees per 10 mln rupees of premium turnover till Oct 31.  The exchange changed it to a slab based structure from Nov 1 which, along with rising equity options premium turnover, resulted in a sequential jump in transaction charges income from equity derivatives in Oct-Dec. The equity options premium turnover in Oct-Dec jumped 3.1 times to 1.61 trln rupees and along with the slab-wise transaction charge structure it led to the transaction income from equity derivatives jumping to 566 mln rupees from 49 mln rupees in the previous quarter.

Further, in the March quarter, for which the earnings will be disclosed by the BSE this month (April) or next (May), the exchange recorded a 42% sequential rise in its cash market turnover to 5.74 trln rupees. In the December quarter, cash market turnover went up sequentially by just 8.6%.

A sharp increase in volume or turnover is undoubtedly a key lever of topline growth for a stock exchange, according to Prayesh Jain, senior vice president and research analyst-institutional equities, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Given the trend of turnover on its equity futures and options and cash segments, the BSE's transaction charges income would do well," Jain said. 

There was a 68% sequential jump in the BSE' consolidated total transaction charges income in the December quarter to 1.66 bln rupees. This was led by a 15% rise in equity cash segment transaction charges to 693 mln rupees, and a 11.5 times jump in equity derivatives transaction charges to 566 mln rupees. The share of equity derivatives transaction charges to total transaction charges moved up sharply to 34.1% in the December quarter from 5% in the previous quarter, and is expected to rise further in the March quarter due to the 82% sequential jump in premium turnover.

In the longer period, that is in the first nine months of 2023-24, BSE's consolidated transaction charges income has jumped 83% on year to 3.31 bln rupees, with 18.6% share of equity derivatives segment. In the corresponding period a year ago equity derivatives segment contribution was negligible.

Clearly, the stock exchanges' topline have gained from the sustained sharp growth in equity derivatives turnover in the last one year. A report by rating agency, ICRA, earlier this year attributed the phenomenon to multi-fold increase in retail investor participation, launch of new index options, miniaturisation of contract and lot sizes, and separate weekly expiries for each index option.

Going forward, volatility in the stock market will determine whether the trend can sustain for a few more quarters. Volatility is a friend of equity traders, and volumes tend to rise significantly during times of volatility. Further, steps like NSE's recent cut in transaction charges in its equity cash and equity derivatives segments, is likely to make it more cost-effective for equity traders.

But there is a caveat. Transaction charges is a key but not the only driver for BSE's consolidated net revenue from operations, given the fact that it made up for 36.7% of the total revenue in Apr-Sep. "The topline growth of BSE has other growth levers too such as listing fees and mutual fund platform," according to Jain.

He further said that profitability could get dragged if BSE incurs high clearing and settlement charges paid to NSE's clearing corporation as a part of interoperability in clearing and settlement on the two exchanges. Jain also said that any sharp increase in settlement guarantee fund corpuses for different trading segments would also be a drag on profitability.

You do not gain immunity to any so-called “illness”

Such true words.

From Garret Kramer's twitter https://twitter.com/GarretKramer/status/1759930030384087506:

"You do not gain immunity to any so-called “illness.” There is simply no evidence of this. Illness = the natural process of detoxification. If you suppress this process with vaccines and drugs, you’ll pay the price later with more severe versions..."

Real or scripted wars?

War and violence may not be real anymore if one means wars to emanate from authentic differences between different groups of people or countries.

At times wars are staged, at times fringe agents are used to provoke an immedaite real response at people level.

But at the government & military level the wars are never authentic. There is a single group of puppeteers holding the strings to both sides of a conflict, has been so in history. When loss of lives & damage to property does take it is usually restricted to the commoners who are not a part of the elite group or their agents.

As a commenter named 'Researcher' puts it in a comment to https://off-guardian.org/2023/11/25/lies-lies-and-more-lies/: "The films & tv you watch tell stories and show destructive behaviors they want people to believe, emulate and mimic...

"That’s why our world is permeated with violence in media, print and film. Not because it’s desired by audiences or even factual but because it triggers the fight or flight response, inhibits critical thinking, then our subconscious collates the repetition of signs, symbols, words, phrases and messages. Our subconscious can’t distinguish between real life and a movie. That’s how trauma based, mass mind control works."

The small, the middle, and the large of stocks in the market!

Nowadays if you go to any beach in Mumbai or Mira-Virar and look at the horizon you can't really see deep into the sea. There is usually a haze due to air pollution that blocks the deep view of the horizon.

Well, a similar problem is present when you look at the data on stock market indices usually boomed to investors by the media, social media, broker reports, analyst reports etc.

The deep view is blocked. Mosts charts only show 1-year returns and over the last few years only.

But investors need to look beyond 15+ years of data and also focus on longer-duration returns to get a proper perspective of how different diversified indices have moved over the long term and weigh the current short-term sentiments with that.

This is the best way for the investor to not be swayed by immediate sentiments in the market which in any case emanate from short term or even ultra short term movements in stocks and indices.

I did some long-term number crunching on Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap 150, and Nifty Smallcap 250 indices. And, surprise surprise!

I calculated their 5-year rolling return on every day from April 1, 2010 to mid-February 2024 and then annualized it. The rolling annualized 5-year returns on a daily basis for the long 14-year period threw up pretty interesting stuff.

Each of the three indices have charted their own trajectory and diverged from each other multiple times in the long period (see chart below).

And, if you average the rolling daily annualized 5-year returns for the entire nearly 14-year period from April 2010 to mid-Februay 2024, the results are fascinating:

--  13.5% return by Nifty Smallcap 250

--  17.5% return by Nifty Midcap 150

--  13% return by Nifty 100

The largest and the smallest companies in the stock market have delivered identical returns over the long term.

Beech wale (not beach wale!) companies have given higher returns. Jo stocks na upar na niche capitalisation ke the (meaning na ghar ke nag hat ke!) they ended up doing better!

 

PARENTS have described in detail what happened to their babies...

From https://twitter.com/stopvaccinating/status/1752899629405098036

"PARENTS have described in detail what happened to their babies after vaccination, often the MMR Vaccine:  

- Baby screams a high pitch PAIN scream for endless hours 

- Doctor says give Tylenol for pain 

- Tylenol inhibits glutathione, the master detox agent in the body 

- Baby arches back 

- Baby runs high fever 

- Baby falls into deep sleep 

- Baby wakes up after a day or two 

- Baby can no longer say words 

- Baby no longer makes eye contact 

- Baby stares off into space 

- Baby bangs head on walls (to stop the pain, ironically) 

- Baby toe walks 

- Baby has new digestive issues 

- Baby has texture issues 

- Baby has sound / light / tactility sensory overwhelm 

- Baby ultimately is diagnosed with autism 

- SEIZURES may also present 

- Pediatrician says it is a COINCIDENCE 

- Fake news media says it is a COINCIDENCE 

- Pro vaccine trolls in social media say "correlation does not equal causation" 

- Andy Wakefield is somehow blamed when parents share what happened to their child 

- Parents may or may not learn / und
erstand that vaccines were the primary CAUSE

- Baby *may* have had a MTHFR gene mutation that reduces ed the ability to detoxify vaccine poison 

- Pediatrician and other conventional doctors are clueless how to help the child, from a medical point of view 

- Parents may not know that DETOXIFICATION, the elimination of dairy, and other alternative modalities may help, or even dramatically help the child with autism (even years after the vaccine).  

 

Institutional equities business proves to be a drag on Motilal Oswal Financia's Oct-Dec topline

25 January 2024

The sequential performance of leading brokerage and financial services firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd in the December quarter was marred by a fall in broking business income from its institutional equities business segment, according to information disclosed by the management in its post-earnings investor call on Wednesday. Motilal Oswal Financial reported that its brokerage revenue fell 8% on quarter to 5.36 bln rupees in Oct-Dec.

The management of Motilal Oswal Financial told investors in the call that during the December quarter the retail broking business was flattish on a sequential basis but the institutional equities business saw "lower volumes." The firm's total brokerage revenue of 5.36 bln rupees made up for slightly above 50% of the total revenue.

The institutional equities segment of the broking operations of the firm provides extensive research on more than 250 companies covering 21 sectors, as per information in the company's post-earnings investor presentation. This segment currently caters to around 840 institutional clients.

Motilal Oswal Financial is a full service brokerage firm earning from fees charged to retail, corporate, and institutional investors on their trading in cash and derivatives segments of stock exchanges, commissions from mutual fund distribution, and non-broking charges in institutional deals. As of Dec 31, Motilal Oswal Financial had around 8,22,000 active clients on the NSE. The Motilal Oswal Group of which it is a part also operates in investment banking, asset management, wealth management, private equity, and housing finance businesses.

Compared to the year ago period Motilal Oswal Financial's revenue from broking business rose 23% but was significantly below the total revenue growth of 36%. The other major revenue-earner for the brokerage firm in its standalone operations is interest income which comes mainly from financing margin trading by equity traders and other sources.

In Oct-Dec, it recorded interest income of 3.54 bln rupees in Oct-Dec, 12% more than the previous quarter and 68% up from the year-ago quarter. It made up for 34% of the total revenue of the brokerage firm.

In its investor presentation Motilal Oswal Financial said that it was among the "top three brokers in terms of gross brokerage", and was aiming to further improve its market share in the fast growing market.

The flattish revenue growth on a sequential basis from retail broking in Oct-Dec was on the back of the average daily turnover in the stock exchanges rising by just 8%. Motilal Oswal Financial said its retail cash average daily turnover market share went up by 42 bps on quarter to 7.5%. It further said that its share in the futures and options premium for the last month of the December quarter was 8.7%.

The danger that confronts us is still our own sprawling discretionary administrative state, soon to be boosted and camouflaged by an unaccountable international bureaucracy.....

https://brownstone.org/articles/the-whos-managerial-gambit/

By Bruce Pardy, Jan 11 2024

"....They locked people down, closed their businesses, made them wear masks, and herded them to vaccination clinics. In some countries, people endured the most extreme restrictions on civil liberties in peacetime history.....

The WHO proposals are a shell game. The scheme will provide cover to domestic public health authorities. Power will be ubiquitous but no one will be accountable. Citizens will lack control over the governance of their countries, as they already do. The danger that confronts us is still our own sprawling discretionary administrative state, soon to be boosted and camouflaged by an unaccountable international bureaucracy.....

The WHO proposals will protect power from accountability. National governments will be in on the plan. The people are the problem they seek to manage. The new regime will not override sovereignty but that is small comfort. Sovereignty provides no protection from your own authoritarian state...."

Vexatious MCX tech platform issue needs fast resolution

By putting the technical issues around Multi Commodity Exchange's new trading, and clearing and settlement, platform, earlier set to go live on Oct 3, before its technical advisory committee the Securities and Exchange Board of India may has rightly played it safe.

Such a vetting of a new system of a market infrastructure institution is perhaps a first, but is welcome if the additional scrutiny in the case of MCX helps in mitigating the inherent risks of a complete switch to a new technology platform from an existing one. The exchange has a 98% turnover share in commodity derivatives market in the country, which means any problem in its systems can have wide ramifications.

MCX's existing trading and clearing technology system is that of 63 Moons Technologies, formerly Financial Technologies (India), which was a promoter entity till around 2013, while the new technology system has been developed by Tata Consultancy Services.

SEBI, on Sep 29, wrote to MCX to put the go-live of the new platform in abeyance. SEBI had received a letter from an investor body, Chennai Financial Markets and Accountability, demanding a parallel run of the new and old technology platforms by MCX for a minimum period of one year. The investor body had earlier filed writ petitions in the same matter before the Madras High Court which were still pending for disposal.

SEBI forwarded this letter to MCX and asked the exchange to respond to the issues raised by the investor body, which will then be discussed by a technical advisory committee in a meeting "which would be held shortly."

The issue of whether a stock exchange or a commodity derivatives exchange should run two different technology platforms in parallel in a live environment is a vexatious one given the enormous volume of orders and transactions that will have to pass through and get cleared and settled on two platforms simultaneously.

SEBI's technical advisory committee, comprising of five Indian Institute of Technology professors and directors, and two other persons, will be better placed to take a call on the technological challenges involved in the switch in technology platform by MCX.

But SEBI will also have to weigh in on non-technology implications, including the costs incurred due to a delay. MCX's new technology platform was originally slated to go live in Jul 2022 and is already delayed by 14-15 months.

It has had to pay 63 Moons Technologies for continuing the usage of its trading and settlement technology software along with support services. From October 2022 to Dec 2023 the costs have added to around 3.47 bln rupees or around 690 mln rupees per quarter. This makes up for around half of the exchange's quarterly revenue run rate.

MCX is listed on the stock exchanges, and under its current shareholding structure, the entire 100% holding is held by public shareholders with institutional investors holding around 80% and balance by retail investors. Its shareholders have already got hit by the financial implications of the delays so far.

Currently, SEBI's regulations and circulars are silent on whether a market infrastructure institution such as a stock exchange, clearing corporation, and a depository, is required to take prior regulatory approval with regard to their choice of technology platforms.

The MCX situation is therefore a challenge for SEBI. But the sooner the regulator takes a call the better it will be for the entire commodity derivatives market and its market participants.