which funds sold manpasand beverages stock in may?

A story I wrote yesterday

http://www.cogencis.com/differentiators/ShareNews.aspx?newsId=1287742

Four of seven fund houses sold Manpasand Beverages' shares in May
    Three of seven mutual funds which held shares of Manpasand Beverage Ltd sold them completely in May while one fund house sold half the shares it held in the company, according to data from brokerage East India Securities.
    The fund house action was not surprising as the company's statutory auditor, Deloitte Haskins & Sells LLP had resigned suddenly on May 26 triggering a sell-off in the shares.
    Manpasand Beverages' shares fell by over 40% in the week following the auditor's resignation. As of close of trade today, the company's shares were quoting at 157.70 rupees on the National Stock Exchange, 65% below the share price on May 25, the day before the auditor's resignation.
    Interestingly, however, three fund houses which had holdings in Manpasand Beverages added more shares during the month, the data under review showed.
    But completely exiting the stock in May were Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund, Baroda Pioneer Mutual Fund and BOI AXA Mutual Fund. The schemes of Kotak Mahindra MF sold 51,000 shares of Manpasand Beverages in May, and those of Baroda Pioneer MF and BOI AXA MF sold 30,000 shares and 25,313 shares, respectively.
    Another fund house BNP Paribas Mutual Fund sold 297,728 shares of Manpasand Beverages, reducing its total holding in the company by half.
    It was not clear whether these fund houses sold their holdings before or after May 26.
    The selling fund houses collectively held 0.6% stake in the company as of Apr 30, and BNP Paribas MF which did not exit completely held 0.26% stake as of May 31.
    Their small holdings made it easier for them to sell without triggering a further slide in the company's shares.
    But three mutual funds which held higher stakes in Manpasand Beverages as of Apr 30 did not sell any shares of the company at the end of May and, on the contrary, they added shares.
    The schemes of Motilal Oswal MF, which held 6.41 mln shares as of Apr 30, bought 320,556 more shares in May, increasing its stake in Manpasand Beverages to 5.9% from 5.3%.
    In a note to investors following the resignation of the company's auditor, Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund said it will take a call on its investments after the company's Jan-Mar earnings and the stance of the new auditor, Mehra Goel and Co.
    The fund house had justified its investment in Manpasand Beverages saying the company remains a key beneficiary of a consumer shift to fruit-based drinks from carbonated ones.
    SBI Mutual Fund's schemes bought 44,440 shares of Manpasand Beverages in May increasing the fund house's stake in the company to 4.5% from 4.4%, and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund's schemes bought 89,901 shares of the company taking its stake to 1.1% from 1.0%.
    Scheme-wise data from Cogencis' Corporate Fundamental Database showed that of the three schemes of Motilal Oswal MF which held shares of Manpasand Beverages, MOSt Focused Long Term Fund bought 295,448 shares of the total 320,556 shares bought by the three schemes collectively.
    In the case of ICICI Prudential MF, nearly all the fresh purchases of 89,901 shares of Manpasand Beverages in May was in ICICI Prudential Indo Asia Equity Fund which did not have prior holding in the company.
    Among selling fund houses, BNP Paribas had three schemes holding shares of Manpasand Beverages as of Apr 30 and each of them sold nearly half their respective holdings in May.

Number of Manpasand Beverages' shares held by mutual funds
	May 31	Apr 30
Motilal Oswal MF	6,727,683	6,407,127
SBI MF	5,111,156	5,066,716
ICICI Prudential MF	1,283,827	1,193,926
BNP Paribas MF	292272	590,000
Kotak Mahindra MF	0	51,000
Baroda Pioneer MF	0	30,000
BOI AXA MF	0	25,313

Gold MF schemes outperform other equity, debt schemes in last 2 months

A story I wrote, for the media company I work for presently, last week on gold ETFs & gold saving funds outperforming all other mutual fund categories, year to date, as equity markets waver & bond yields continue to rise

 Gold MF schemes outperform other equity, debt schemes in last 2 months

    Returns from gold saving funds and gold exchange traded funds have seen an uptick in the last few months on the back of a traction in the price of physical gold in the London bullion market.
    This has coincided with the recent decline in equity market and rise in bond prices. And, as a result, the gold funds category has outperformed equity and debt fund categories so far this calendar year.
    The year-to-date return of the gold saving funds category stood at 4.1% as of Feb 21, according to data from Value Research. This was significantly higher than 0-1% returns delivered by fund categories such as liquid funds, ultra short term debt fund and credit opportunities debt funds.
    Equity fund categories have been in the red in year-to-date performance, with equity multi cap funds down 4.6% and equity large cap funds down 2.6%, the data under review showed.
    The outperformance of gold saving funds has come on the back of gold ETFs touching one-year high in the last one month.
    HDFC Gold ETF, for instance, touched a one-year high on Feb 16, while Reliance Gold BEEs touched a one-year high on Jan 25.
    Domestic mutual fund schemes investing in gold include gold exchange traded funds. Gold saving funds do not invest directly but instead invest in the units of domestic gold ETFs.
    Gold ETFs are designed to mimic the price performance of physical gold in the London bullion market, carrying only the risk of foreign exchange rate fluctuations.
    On the London bullion market, the gold price touched a one-year high of $1,360.25 an ounce on Jan 25. Since then, it has shed some of the gains, but the positive effect on the performance of gold ETFs tracking the gold prices has remained.
    Gold prices have risen on the back of buying in two largest gold markets in the world--India and China. In January, India was loading up gold in preparation of the ensuing wedding season and China was readying for the lunar new year, said Chirag Mehta, fund manager of Quantum Gold Fund at Quantum Asset Management, in a monthly outlook note to investors.
    "In times of geo-political risks, weakening dollar or impending Fed rate cuts, gold has been perceived to be a safe haven currency," Abhishek Bisen, fund manager at Kotak Mutual Fund told Cogencis.
    The dollar index's recent nosedive to 88 mark led to sharp spike in commodities in general, and gold benefitted from the same and became one of the best performing asset classes in last three month, said Bisen, who manages Kotak Gold ETF.
    The outperformance of gold saving funds in the last two months follows a year-long period when it was underperforming almost all the fund categories during last year.
    As calendar 2017 ended, gold saving funds had turned in annual returns ranging from 2.3% to 3.9%. In contrast, equity multi-cap funds delivered annual returns ranging from 25% to 51%, and short term debt funds' annual returns came in between 5.2% and 9.4%.
    Gold prices in London bullion market had a golden run in 2010-2012. Around half the gains seen in this period were erased in 2013-2015. In 2016, gold prices rebounced again for a short while.
    The table below lists the returns from different mutual fund categories as of Feb 21:

                     YTD      6-month   1-year
                     ---      -------   ------
                              (in %)
                     -------------------------
Gold funds           4.1       4.5       2.2
Debt: Liquid         0.9       3.2       6.5
Debt: Ultra ST       0.9       2.9       6.4
Debt: Credit Opp.    0.7       2.3       7.1
Debt: Short Term     0.6       1.8       6.1
Debt: Income        -0.1       0.0       4.9
Debt: Dynamic Bond  -0.6      -1.1       3.6
Debt: Gilt          -1.6      -3.6       2.0
Equity: Large Cap   -2.6       5.9      16.4
Equity: Multi Cap   -4.6       7.3      18.6
Equity: Small Cap   -6.1      15.7      30.7
Equity: Mid Cap     -6.2       8.7      20.9
YTD: year to date
https://twitter.com/JournalistRGaj/status/968003436896751616

Budget: Cap gains tax, dividend tax to reduce mis-selling by MFs

Story I wrote yesterday on impact of Budget move on LTCG and dividend distribution tax on mutual funds:

http://www.cogencis.com/differentiators/ShareNews.aspx?newsId=1132741

[C] BUDGET: Cap gains tax, dividend tax to reduce mis-selling by MFs
Cogencis, Thursday, Feb 1

    By Rajesh Gajra
    NEW DELHI - Equity schemes and equity-oriented hybrid schemes of mutual
funds will be hit by the Budget's imposition of a 10% tax on long term
capital gains from investments in equity oriented schemes of mutual funds.
    This came on the back of a similar 10% long term capital gains tax on
investments in equity shares of listed companies.
    Long term capital gains arise when an investment is sold off after a
minimum holding period of one year at a profit.
    The capital gains tax on equity funds will be applied prospectively with
January 31 being the base date for determining the cost of acquisition. The
derived capital gains will be taxed at 10% without inflation indexation
benefit.
    The Budget has also made dividends declared by equity oriented funds
subject to a 10% dividend distribution tax.
    The impact of the new tax proposals will be widely felt by the mutual
fund industry.
    Just last year, the industry witnessed saw record inflows into equity
funds last year. In calendar 2017, equity funds saw net inflow of 1.49 trln
rupees, four times more than in the previous year.
    Further, since the definition of equity oriented funds covers all mutual
fund schemes which invest more than 65% of its assets in equity shares, the
long term capital gains tax will also cover several hybrid funds where the
equity investments form more than 65% of assets size.
    In the second half of last year, when some investors got concerned with
the high valuations of stocks in the equity market, fund houses aggressively
marketed equity-oriented hybrid funds as a safe bet.
    Hybrid funds attracted strong net inflow of 881 bln rupees last year, 4.2
times more than in calendar 2016.
    A chunk of this inflow went into equity-oriented hybrid funds which were
investing 65-80% in equities and the balance in debt securities.
    Further, the monthly and quarterly dividend plans of hybrid funds were
pushed the hardest in an attempt to lure investors who would generally invest
in bank deposits and were disappointed with falling interest rates on bank
deposits.
    In fact, 41% of average assets under management of all hybrid funds in
the quarter ended September were in dividend plans, with the balance being in
growth plans.
    The 10% dividend distribution tax on dividends by equity oriented funds
will make dividend plans less attractive than before, and any one trying to
push dividend plans at the cost of growth plans will not find it easy any
more, G Pradeepkumar, CEO of Union Asset Management Co told Cogencis.
    The long term capital gains tax and the 10% tax on dividends will reduce
churn and reduce mis-selling, according to Aashish Somaiyaa, MD and CEO of
Motilal Oswal Asset Management Co.
    According to Pradeepkumar, the government had to levy a dividend
distribution tax on dividends as otherwise fund houses would have
circumvented the capital gains tax by using dividend plans to distribute
gains on investments to investors.
    Interestingly, the tax arbitrage between debt funds and equity funds
(including equity-oriented hybrid funds) will also reduce.
    According to Rajeev Thakkar, chief investment officer of PPFAS Mutual
Fund, taxation may cease to be a crtical factor in selection asset classes by
mutual fund investors.
    While long term capital gains tax on equity funds will be at 10% without
inflation indexation benefit, that on debt funds will continue to be at 20%
with inflation indexation benefit, he said.
    "Say a debt fund generates 8% returns and inflation is 5%. The tax will
come to about 20% on 3% or 0.6%. This comes to slightly less than 10% of the
returns," said Thakkar.
    According to Jimmy Patel, MD & CEO of Quantum Asset Management Co, fund
Houses may have to realign the income distribution strategy on their schemes,
and fund houses prone to use dividend stripping may get reigned in.  End

Net inflow in existing equity funds touch six-month low in Dec

A story I wrote earlier this week (in the media company I write for currently) on inflows in domestic MFs"

Net inflow in existing equity funds touch six-month low in Dec

    Existing open-ended equity funds saw net inflow slow down to a six-month low in December, as investors were guarded with many turning to investing in hybrid funds and alternative investment funds instead.

    Last month saw net inflow of 106.2 bln rupees flow into existing equity funds, sharply lower than the previous month's level of 173.7 bln rupees and the lowest in six months, data from Association of Mutual Funds in India showed.

    The analysis excluded close-ended funds and subscriptions garnered by new fund offers.

    The fall of net inflow of open-ended equity funds to a six-month low in December was primarily on account of a spurt in redemptions during the month to 220.6 bln rupees which was the highest monthly redemption level in more than a year.

    Redemptions have risen in the past two months. In the Nov-Dec period, total redemptions stood at 392.9 bln rupees, significantly higher than 256.9 bln rupees seen in the previous two months of September and October.

HIGH NETWORTH INVESTORS

    High networth investors are booking profits in some of their current holdings in equity schemes of mutual funds and re-deploying the funds with alternative investment funds and portfolio management schemes, according to Kavitha Menon, a Mumbai-based investment advisor.

    According to Rishi Kohli, Managing Director at Pro Alpha Systematic Capital, lot of high networth investors and family offices with liquidity but scared of current high levels of equity markets were pouring in money into alternative investment funds that promise steady returns with negligible risk and 8-12% range of post tax returns which some of them are offering.

    This is reflected in the declining on-month growth rates in assets held by corporate investors and high networth investors in equity funds, excluding tax-saving funds.

    Assets held by corporate investors, which include family offices, in equity funds last month grew marginally by 0.1% on month to 1.11 trln rupees. In November, the same had seen an on-month assets growth of 4.2%.

    High networth investors' assets in equity funds rose 5.3% on month to 2.43 trln rupees in December, compared to a higher on-month growth of 5.9% in the previous month.

    Alternative investment funds are regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. They are separate from mutual funds as they raise funds from investors privately and have to raise at least 10 mln rupees from an investor in any new scheme.

    Further, the sponsor of an alternative investment fund is required to itself invest a minimum of 2.5% of a scheme corpus.

    As per last available data from Securities and Exchange Board of India, alternative investment funds had raised funds to the tune of 137 bln rupees in the Jul-Sep quarter, which was close to double the 72 bln rupees amount raised in the previous quarter.

RETAIL INVESTORS

    Net inflow in existing equity funds fell to a six-month low in December also due to retail investors slowing down in their rush to invest in equity funds.

    Assets held by retail investors in equity funds, excluding tax-saving funds, grew by 4.5% on month in December to 3.07 trln rupees. In the previous month, the same had recorded an on-month growth of 5.3%.

    According to Menon, retail investors were being advised by mutual fund agents to shift from investing in equity funds to investing in equity-oriented hybrid funds.

    Fund houses and brokerage firms which act as mutual fund distributors have been aggressively marketing hybrid funds to retail investors under the premise that these funds will partially protect their capital and yet give them better returns from the equity market.

    This is also seen from the fact that last month investors ploughed in investments worth 98 bln rupees in the net (gross inflow minus gross outflow) in hybrid funds. It was the highest monthly net inflow in at least last two years.

    With equity markets touching new highs in the current month, and valuations rising still further, the equity funds will continue to find it difficult to attract large new investments from investors, big or small.

    The table below lists the last one year trend in open-ended equity fund inflows

                     Existing funds                   New fund offers

         -----------------------------------------    ---------------

         Gross inflow   Gross outflow   Net inflow     Subscription

         ------------   -------------   ----------     ------------

                             (In bln rupees)

         ----------------------------------------------------------

Dec '17      327         221             106              5

Nov '17      346         172             174             25

Oct '17      276         122             154              3

Sep '17      323         135             188              0

Aug '17      282         111             171             21

Jul '17      252         144             108              0

Jun '17      233         170              63              2

May '17      207         123              84              4

Apr '17      184         103              80              2

Mar '17      256         203              53              0

Feb '17      182         138              44              1

Jan '17      156         120              36              2

December net investments by mutual funds in equities at a 9-month low.

December net investments by mutual funds in equities at a 9-month low.



http://cogencis.com/differentiators/ShareNews.aspx?newsId=1092485

SEBI lays out 6 categories & 38 sub-categories for open ended MF schemes to classify into

Story on SEBI's circular of Oct 6, 2017, on categorisation of mutual fund schemes

http://www.cogencis.com/differentiators/ShareNews.aspx?newsId=1030425

SEBI lays out 6 categories & 38 sub-categories for open ended MF schemes to classify into
    Securities and Exchange Board of India today laid out new
norms for categorization and rationalization of open ended mutual fund
schemes, following which the total number of schemes is likely come down.
    There are around 830 open ended schemes in operation at present as per
current classification by Association of Mutual Funds in India. Of these, 257 schemes are classified by AMFI as income, 316 as equity, 28 as balanced, 52 as liquid, 41 as gilt and 42 as tax-saving equity.
    These schemes will have to categorise themselves as per the new Sebi
norms which specify 11 categories for equity funds, 16 for debt funds, seven
for hybrid or balanced funds, two for solution-oriented funds and one each
for ETFs (exchange traded funds) and fund of funds.
    One only one scheme will be permitted per category for a fund house, SEBI
said.
    Further, after classifying a scheme in any one of these categories, the
fund house will to ensure a minimum threshold of investment in specific type
of securities or asset class.
    For instance, a mid cap--and a small cap--equity fund will have to
minimum 65% exposure to mid cap stocks and small cap stocks.
    Among debt funds, an ultra short duration fund will require its portfolio
duration to be between three months and six months, while a low duration
fund's portfolio duration will have to be in the 6-12 months range.

IMPACT
    With the latest move by SEBI, the number of mutual fund schemes is likely
to come down.
    A fund house having more than one schemes with similar investment
objectives and which can not be fit in more than one of the new specified
categories will have to merge these schemes into one category.
     According to LIC Mutual Fund's CEO, Raj Kumar, it was getting too
confusing for investors to navigate multiple schemes with similar investment
objectives.
    "The clear definition of the schemes will give clarity to the investors
where a scheme is investing," said Gopal Agrawal, chief investment
officer-equities at Tata Mutual Fund.
    SEBI said in today's circular that there was as need to bring in
uniformity in the characteristics of similar type of schemes launched by
different mutual funds.
    Going forward a fund house will be able to successfully get SEBI's
approval for a new scheme launch only if it does not already have a scheme in
the category under which the new scheme falls.
    For equity funds investing in large cap, mid cap and small cap stocks,
SEBI has simplified matters by laying out their definitions.
    Large cap companies will include the top 100 companies by market cap
while mid cap companies will include the next 150 companies by market cap.
Small cap companies are defined as those which fall beyond the top 250
companies by market cap.
    Based on current market cap levels, and using the new definitions, the
smallest large cap stock has a market cap of 260 bln rupees while the
smallest mid cap stock has a market cap of 76 bln rupees, according to
Agrawal.

TIME TO COMPLY
    SEBI has given fund houses time till Dec 6 to analyse each of their
existing schemes and revert to SEBI with the category classification of each
scheme and proposals, if any, to merge multiple schemes into one category.
    Within three months after SEBI reviews a fund house's proposals and issues its observations, the fund house will have to have ensure completion of all action to comply with the new scheme categorisation norms.  End

MF debt exposure to money mkt & short term paper rises in Jul-Aug

A story I wrote yesterday for the news organisation I work for currently:



MF debt exposure to money mkt & short term paper rises in Jul-Aug
     Debt funds chose to maintain a high investment presence at
the lower end of the yield curve for the second consecutive month in August,
an analysis of the latest mutual fund deployment data from Securities and
Exchange Board of India released on Wednesday showed.
    Investments by debt funds, gilt funds and balanced funds collectively
held 20.1% of their aggregate debt assets in money market securities at the
end of August. It followed a 22.8% exposure to money market securities as of
July-end and a 15.0% one as of end of June.
    The analysis excluded liquid funds since they have to mandatorily stay
invested in money market securities having maturity less than three months.
    Excluding the assets held by liquid funds, the total debt assets of
mutual fund schemes totalled 9.60 trln rupees as of August-end of which 1.93
trln rupees were invested in debt securities having maturity of less than 90
days, the data under review showed.
    From June-end to August-end the aggregate debt assets of the non-liquid
fund schemes clocked a growth by 16% while their exposure to money market
securities jumped higher by 55%.
    Liquidity is usually the main consideration behind a short-term, or
long-term, debt fund being invested in money market securities but that does
not explain the a higher level of above 20% exposure to these securities.
    "In addition to liquidity consideration, in the last couple of months
there has been a general rise in yield and fund managers have likely chosen
to reduce their longer-duration securities exposure and park it in money
market securities," said R. Sivakumar, head of fixed income at Axis Mutual
Fund.
    The shift from longer-duration debt to debt with shorter maturities is
also evident from the fact that mutual fund schemes have also increased their
exposure to debt market securities with maturity terms between 90 days and
one year.
    At the end of August, the investment in debt paper having 90-365 days
maturity was 2.03 trln rupees, or 21.1% of aggregate debt assets held by
funds other than liquid funds. This was higher than the exposure of 19.0% at
the end of the preceding month.
    With funds other than liquid funds jacking up their money market exposure
in the last two months, preference for some certain types of money market
instruments has also increased.
    In the combined holdings of liquid funds and other funds in money market
securities, the exposure to collateralised borrowing and lending obligations,
which are typically one-day instruments, has shot up by 76% to 808 bln rupees
as of August-end from 458 bln rupees at the end of June.
    This meant that of aggregate money market investments by all funds, these
CBLO instruments, accounted for 14.9% at the end of August, up from just 9.8%
at the end of June.
    The bulk of aggregate money market exposure of funds is in commercial
paper whose exposure has stayed consistent around the 49% level in the last
three months.  End

http://www.cogencis.com/differentiators/ShareNews.aspx?newsId=1029705

Hybrid (balanced) funds recent performance

Story I did earlier this week analysing recent performance of hybrid (balanced funds)

http://www.cogencis.com/differentiators/ShareNews.aspx?newsId=1029274

Hybrid funds record fall in Aug-Sep returns as equity mkt declines
Oct 3

NEW DELHI - The hybrid schemes of mutual funds, which have seen assets
rise multi-fold in the last one year, are struggling to deliver alpha returns
in the last two months on the back of equity market indices falling by around
2% on month.
The average net asset value of 52 equity-oriented hybrid funds fell at
the end of August and September, an analysis of data from Value Research
showed. These funds recorded positive on-month returns or a rise in net asset
value in the rest of the calendar year.
The average on-month return was (-)0.2% for these funds at the end of
last month, following an average return of (-)0.3% at the end of August. The
analysis covered returns of the direct plans-growth option of the hybrid
funds.
This follows declines of 2% and 1.2% on month in the equity market
benchmark index of Nifty 100 Total Returns at the end of September and
August, respectively.
Many hybrid funds have been consistently having an exposure of 75-80% to
equities which suited them till recently when markets were doing well and
their performance was looking fantastic, according to Radhika Gupta, CEO of
Edelweiss Asset Management.
UNDERPERFORMANCE
The equity-oriented hybrid funds have also been underperforming in the
last two months, the analysis showed.
At the end of last month, the average one-year return of the funds under
review was 13.1%, which trailed a 13.5% one-year return a hybrid fund would
have got had it invested 70% in Nifty 100 Total Returns index and 30% in
10-year gilt paper.
As of the end of August, too, the average one-year return of
equity-oriented hybrid funds had trailed the derived benchmark. The preceding
two months, however, had seen these funds outperform (see table below).
According to Aashish Sommaiyaa, CEO of Motilal Oswal Asset Management,
hybrid funds were being promoted in the fund industry on the idea of
conservatism but many of these funds were taking aggressive bets in equities
with high-beta stocks in their portfolios.
"High-beta equity holdings can do enough damage to destroy whatever a
hybrid fund tries to cushion with debt," he said.
GROWTH DYNAMICS
Hybrid funds have seen net inflow of 389 bln rupees into them in Apr-Aug,
according to last available data from the Association from Mutual Funds in
India, 4.5 times more than in the same period a year ago.
This rate of growth is higher than 3.5 times on-year rise in net inflow
into equity funds to the tune of 581 bln rupees in Apr-Aug this financial
year. Debt funds, on the other hand, have seen net inflow fall 21% on year
for the same period.
Hybrid funds have become popular in the last one year among fixed income
investors who have been disappointed with declining interest rates from their
savings in banks.
As a part of their marketing drive on hybrid funds, many fund houses have
been promoting monthly dividend payout of hybrid funds in a big way,
according to Gupta.
But this has come with an underlying promise of monthly income and a
boost in returns from the equity exposure. But equity markets can fall
without notice, say mutual fund analysts, and expose the equity component of
hybrid funds to shocks.
"If you look at a month like September when a hybrid fund may be down
1-2% on month, the dividend payout may have to come from capital and not
reserves," said Gupta.
DEBT-ORIENTED HYBRID FUNDS
Other than equity-oriented hybrid funds, the mutual fund industry also
offers debt-oriented hybrid funds where the equity portion is sought to be
restricted to below 35%.
Among these funds, the ones with 30-40% exposure to equities have also
struggled to deliver alpha returns in the last couple of months.
The average returns of 19 debt-oriented hybrid funds with aggressive
equities component declined 0.1% on month as of the end of September, which
was the first time it recorded a fall as of any month-end in the current
calendar year, an analysis of the data under review showed.
However, on their one-year returns, these funds managed to offer an
average return which was higher than the benchmarks derived in the analysis.
At the end of last month, the average one-year return of the 19
debt-oriented hybrid funds was 10.8%. It was higher than what such a fund
would have got by investing 34% in Nifty 100 Total Returns index and 66% in
10-year gilt paper.
Going forward, if equity markets remain subdued and the performance of
hybrid funds suffers due to their equity exposure, the fund houses will find
it extremely difficult to position hybrid funds as an alternative to bank
deposits where a fixed rate of interest is assured and known upfront.
The table below lists one-year average returns of direct plans of
balanced funds and derived one-year returns of benchmarks.
As of end of:
----------------------------------
Sep       Aug        Jul       Jun
----      ----       ----      ----
Hybrid funds (equity oriented)    13.1      13.2       15.9      15.6
Derived hybrid benchmark*         13.5      13.3       15.8      15.2
Hybrid funds (debt oriented)      10.8      11.3       13.0      13.6
Derived hybrid benchmark**        10.1      10.1       11.4      11.2
*  Assuming 70% of equity (Nifty 100 Total Returns) and 30% of debt (gilts)
** Assuming 34% of equity (Nifty 100 TR) and 66% of debt (gilts)
End

Liquid funds turn less volatile in last 3 months, volatility likely to rise by end of yr

A trend story on liquid funds I did for the news orgn I work for currently:

http://www.cogencis.com/differentiators/ShareNews.aspx?newsId=1003654

[C] Liquid funds turn less volatile last 3 mo, likely to rise end of yr

Cogencis, Monday, Aug 28

    By Rajesh Gajra

    NEW DELHI - Investors in liquid schemes of mutual funds have seen returns

become steady in the last three months, after having seen highly volatile

returns in the preceding six months.

    In the last three months, liquid funds’ annualized returns have ranged

between 6.48% and 6.72%, while the preceding six months had seen it fluctuate

between a lower 6.00 per cent and a higher 7.08%.

    Fund managers expect lower volatility to continue for a couple of months

but expect a rise in it towards the end of the current calendar supply due to

liquidity pinch.

    In the current month, as of Wednesday, the median one month return of 45

liquid funds was 0.55%, while at the end of previous month and at the end of

June it was 0.56% and 0.54% respectively, an analysis of data from Value

Research's portal showed.

    This narrow band of 0.54-0.56% in the returns stood in sharp contrast to

the wide variance in returns seen from last November to end of May this year

when the median one-month return fluctuated between 0.50% and 0.59% and in

swings.

    For instance, the median one-month return fell sharply to 0.50% at end of

April from 0.58% a month ago, only to rise significantly to 0.59% at end of

May.

    Only returns from direct plans of the liquid funds under review were

considered.

LIQUIDITY SURPLUS

    "Abundant liquidity in the system is leading to low volatility in money

market rates (yields)," said Puneet Pal, head of fixed income at BNP Paribas

Mutual Fund.

    "Currently, there is a 2.5-trln-rupee liquidity in the money market,"

according to Deepak Agarwal, fund manager-debt at Kotak Mutual Fund.

    The last three months has seen this surplus range between 2.5 trln rupees

and 3 trln rupees. Much of it is the money which has continued to remain in

the banking system after demonetisation.

    Post-demonetisation, while the Reserve Bank of India has been active in

sucking out liquidity through open market operations like reverse repo

auctions, the intensity has varied from month to month.

    On the one hand the RBI has been conducting open market operations to

suck out liquidity over the past several months, since April it has also been

intervening in the forex market by buying dollars to rein in the

strengthening rupee and in the process has added to the liquidity in the

system, said Agarwal.

    Liquid funds invest in debt paper of residual maturity necessarily less

than 91 days, as mandated by regulations. This is primarily through

investments in money market instruments where the maturity is less than 91

days.

    Generally, going by recent data, liquid funds invest 45-50% in commercial

papers, 15-20% in sovereign debt paper such as treasury bills and cash

management bills, and 10-15% each in bank certificate of deposits and

collateralised borrowing and lending obligation instruments.

    Other debt schemes of mutual funds like ultra short term debt funds,

short term debt funds and dynamic bond funds also invest a portion of their

assets in money market instruments. Further, a part of the debt portion of

balanced funds also gets invested in this segment.

    According to Securities and Exchange Board of India data total money

market investments by all mutual fund schemes was to the tune of 4.77 trln

rupees as of the end of July. But Association of Mutual Funds in India data showed the assets under

liquid funds to be 3.23 trln rupees, indicating a 30% exposure to money

market instruments being by funds other than liquid funds.

    Unlike liquid funds, the other funds can dynamically increase or decrease

their exposure to less-than-91-day debt paper based on their risk-return

assessment. But when they do chase money market instruments it tends to

reduce yields. Liquid funds’ returns get hit when this happens.

NEXT FEW MONTHS

    “I don't see any reason why money market rates should go up dramatically

in the next couple of months as liquidity conditions are likely to continue,”

said Pal.

    But from October onwards the festive season will lead to a temporary

drawdown on liquidity. And, given that one doesn't expect RBI to cut repo

rate any more till at least the end of the calendar, it might put some upward

pressure on money market rates, according to Pal.

    Further, goods and services tax-driven increase in working capital

requirements of manufacturing companies is likely to lead to a sharp increase

in the issuances of short-term commercial paper of 2-3 month duration,

according to credit rating agency, India Ratings.

    Since these commercial papers are likely to have tenures of less than 91

days, it could drive up the yields of liquid funds’ portfolios.

    According to Agarwal, seven-day borrowings by non-banking financing

companies increase during times of equity initial public offers and any

significant IPO or IPOs in the coming months could pep up the short term

money market rates.

    Another factor impacting liquid funds is assets growth which has seen a

decline in the last three months. Liquid funds recorded net outflows of

646.92 bln rupees in May, 127.39 bln rupees in June and 195.11 bln rupees in

July, against net inflows of 994.03 bln rupees in April.

    Some investor money has shifted from liquid funds to ultra short—and

short—term debt funds in search for higher returns, said Murthy Nagarajan,

head of fixed income at Tata Mutual Fund.

    When investor money flows out of liquid funds the yields should

technically go up from current yields as the money chasing the money market

instruments is that much less, he said.

    The next few months, therefore, is likely to be challenging for liquid

funds to generate attractive returns but it may just be able to successfully

do that if money market conditions support it.

The table below lists the trend in 1-month returns of liquid funds over the

past 13 months:

End of      Median 1-month       Annualised

            return               yield **

------      --------------       ----------

                       (In %)

            -------------------------------

Aug 2017*     0.55                 6.60

Jul 2017      0.56                 6.72

Jun 2017      0.54                 6.48

May 2017      0.59                 7.08

Apr 2017      0.50                 6.00

Mar 2017      0.58                 6.96

Feb 2017      0.51                 6.12

Jan 2017      0.57                 6.84

Dec 2016      0.53                 6.36

Nov 2016      0.56                 6.72

Oct 2016      0.58                 6.96

Sep 2016      0.57                 6.84

Aug 2016      0.60                 7.20

* As of Aug 23

** 1-month return annualised

Data source: Value Research

End