July 28, 2017

ETF assets size to rise from EPF's 225-bln-rupee investment in FY18

A story I wrote this week for the organisation I work for presently.



ETF assets size to rise from EPF's 225-bln-rupee investment in FY18
Thursday, Jul 27
    The assets under management in exchange traded fund schemes
of mutual funds would grow by at least 225 bln rupees in 2017-18 (Apr-Mar)
due to investments by the Employees Provident Fund, going by the data given
by Minister of State and Employment, Bandaru Dattatreya in Rajya Sabha on
Wednesday.
    The Labour Minister said the estimated investment in ETF for current
financial year was approximately 225 bln rupees and this was due the rise in
investment limit in ETFs to 15% from 10% sanctioned by the trustees of the
EFP in May this year.
    In the last two financial years, 2015-16 (Apr-Mar) and 2016-17 (Apr-Mar),
the EPFO has invested a total of 215.61 bln rupees in five ETF schemes of
three fund houses, the Labour Minister's statement showed.
    The current value of assets in 26 ETFs amounted to 387.90 bln rupees, as
of the end of last month, data from Value Research Online showed.
    Since EPF investments in equities through ETFs are long-term in nature,
the funds invested would typically still be invested in the ETFs.
    The one-year returns in these ETFs is in the range of 15-19% as of July
25, and the value of EPFO's investments would have also appreciated by at
least 15%. This would make their current contribution in ETFs' current asset
size to be nearly 60%.
    EPF investments over the last two years were the highest IN SBI Mutual
Fund's Nifty 50 ETF at 128.34 bln rupees. Other ETF schemes invested in by
EPF were SBI Sensex ETF, UTI Nifty 50 ETF, UTI Sensex ETF and Reliance CPSE
ETF (see table).
    The aggregate of the assets under management of these five ETFs as of
June end was 359.31 bln rupees, making up for over 90% of assets of a total
of 26 ETFs in the mutual fund industry.
    As per EPF's mandate, its investments in ETFs can only be in Nifty 50 ETF
or Sensex ETF. Of the 26 existing ETFs, 20 would, therefore, be eligible. But
mutual fund analysts are not sure whether EPF will diversify beyond the
select few ETFs it has invested in till date.
    The EPF is also likely to invest in any new CPSE ETF the government may
launch through a fund house in the current financial year. Till date, it has
invested in 18.08 bln rupees in CPSE ETF, which is managed by Reliance Nippon
Mutual Fund.
    The table below lists details of the ETFs where EPF has invested in the last
two years:

MF scheme           EPF's investments        Current AUM
---------           In FY16     In FY17      of scheme
                    -------     -------      -----------
                              (In bln rupees)
                    -------------------------------------
SBI Nifty 50 ETF     49.22       79.12          200.25
SBI Sensex ETF       16.55       26.91           61.74
UTI Nifty ETF         Nil        19.11           30.55
UTI Sensex ETF        Nil         6.62            9.68
CPSE ETF              Nil        18.08           57.09

(From exactly 5 years ago) An editorial on abuse of double taxation avoidance treaties

This-day-that-year...
https://natant.blogspot.in/2012/07/life-in-financial-markets-abuse-of.html  ...
July 28, 2012


Here is an editorial on the issue of double taxation avoidance agreement signed by India with over 70:

Obfuscating role of DTAAs 
India-Mauritius DTAA is being used for everything but what the concept stands for

Three weeks before an important meeting of Indian and Mauritian on the revision of the double taxation avoidance agreement (DTAA) between the two countries, the minister of 
foreign affairs, international trade and cooperation of Mauritius was camping last week in India and holding press conferences with the Indian media in what appeared to be an attempt to soften the hardline thinking on DTAAs among Indian tax and government officials. 

This was notwithstanding the fact our Prime Minister currently holding the additional position of a finance minster is not seen as someone being anywhere close to the hardline thinking group of which the previous finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, was considered as a crucial member. Mukherjee played a key role in getting a draft of the General Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR) on direct taxation ready and seeking its implementation as soon as possible regardless of whether the larger proposed Direct Taxes Code was approved or not. 

With influential members of the political establishment being on either side of revise-and-curb-allowances-under-DTAAs, with the one holding the status quo view being more influential right now, it is time to take a hard look at the original purpose and objective of a DTAA whether or not any of the DTAAs signed by India with over 70 countries meet them or not. In a world, and in an era encompassing a few centuries, where global trade has inevitably flourished, companies and individuals earn income and make profits from their business operations and transactions in multiple countries. It becomes not just unfair, but also unviable, for a taxpayer if the income or profit made from operations in a foreign country is taxed by that foreign country as well as his home country. 

It was precisely to remove this element of double taxation, treaties such as the DTAAs were conceived and implemented by countries across the globe. The idea was always to eliminate unfair double taxation in order for countries to encourage trade between themselves and attract foreign investments. It was never the purpose to do this by making the rate of taxation very low or almost zero. But this is not considered by the status quo proponents of India's DTAAs with all countries including with countries such as Mauritius which are un-deniably nothing else but tax havens since they charge zero or close to zero rates for income or capital gains taxation. 

Foreign investments into India, whether direct or indirect, are pouring in through such tax havens. About 37 per cent of foreign direct invesments in the country come from Mauritius-registered companies. Clearly, this is nothing but treaty shopping by companies from other countries and there is also the element of round-tripping by Indian companies which route their domestic investments through shell companies set up in Mauritius to evade domestic rates of taxation. 

Such misuse of DTAAs should not be allowed to continue regardless of the threat of foreign investments drying up if they are stopped. India-Mauritius DTAA use is perfectly legitimate if a global investment firm, with its home base in US, or a European country, sets up shop in Mauritius, garners funds from domestic Mauritians and then invests it in India. But if the source of funds are not Mauritian, as they pre-dominantly, then the DTAA ought to be immediately revised to prevent it from happening. 

Even the draft GAAR clauses are lenient in the sense that they only cover residency which only requires board meetings to be held in the other country and adequate manpower and capital to be deployed in the business. Capital requirement is minimal for investment companies seeking registration in Mauritius and even GAAR can not effectively be a party pooper. But a real revision of the India-Mauritius DTAA can provide the much-needed cleansing.

July 20, 2017

An old interview with C.B.Bhave when was the NSDL chief

Sharing an interview from exactly 13 years ago. I had interviewed C.B.Bhave when he was heading NSDL. He served in NSDL for about a decade. After NSDL,  he was the SEBI chief for around 3 years.

I was working in Outlook Money magazine at that time.

The interview:

"Before NSE and NSDL were built people could not believe that large automated systems with nationwide applicability are a feasibility in this country"

July 2004

It was a momentous decision, both for him as well as for the stock market, when in July 1996 C B Bhave quit a heady post as a senior executive director in charge of the secondary market department at the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). He was asked--and he agreed to--take over the reins of the newly-formed National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) as its managing director. NSDL had the mandate to introduce the depository system in the country's capital market. It went live in November 1996.

A civil service officer since 1975, Bhave worked in the central government and state government of Maharashtra before joining Sebi when it was set up in 1992. Very few securities market professionals in the country have as much intricate understanding of the capital market as Bhave does.

In the eight years he has been in NSDL, the benefits of depository have reached investors in no small measure. Bhave has been there all along. He wants to sustain the stock market role of the depository but also wants to make the depository be of use for purposes other than that of stock market. Read on how in an interview with Bhave.

Five years since depository began and investors feel that costs which should have come down has in fact gone up.

We don't charge any annual fees to the DPs. How much a DP charges the investors is something over which we have no control. We enable more and more DPs so that there is competion... But even there we found that there is a range of fees, some charge high annual maintenance charge (AMC) and some charge as low as Rs 100. We haven't investors change their DPs.... Somehow, we have not seen costs as a determining factor in where the investor will decide to go. We have seen DPs having offices side by side, one is advertising that that his charges are lower but still no movement from the other to him. It is also an issue of which DP the investor will prefer from the point of view of his comfort and what kind of services he wants.

Is it because the investor feels that the charges are high across the spectrum and so does not feel motivated enough to check out all?

There is quite a variation if you look at the charge structure of DPs as communicated to us. It is up on our website www.nsdl.co.in. It is possible for investors to go there and compare the charges across DPs.

I don't think one can do anything about this it except to see that competition is there and to check out from the charge structure whether is there is any sign of cartelisation. I haven't seen any sign of cartelisation. There is tremendous variation in the charge structure across DPs.

Charges vary only above the bare minimum you charge. For instance, you charge a transaction fee of Rs 8 only per debit whereas DPs charge investors anywhere between Rs 8 and Rs 25 and some of them even charge these for credits. Are you not concerned about these anomalies?

Some DPs are even charging transaction fee on the value of the transaction. So there is tremendous variety. There are two ways of looking at it. One, we say is that there is actual variety. But I don't see a role for NSDL to fix charges of DPs to investors because that is a policy we have kept away from. Even in law we don't have that kind of power.

There are DPs who do not charge on the credit side, then that does not seem to drive the investors to open demat accounts with them. The DP charging more seems to have his business flourishing as much as the DP who is charging less. In any consumer it is a legitimate aspiration to get that service at a lesser price than what it is today. But whether that price alone is a determinant in deciding whether to avail of service from X or Y or Z there doesn't seem to be strong evidence linking the price to his decision.

In a sense, price variation is very demonstrative of the fact that competition is really at work. Otherwise, you would have seen uniform prices and that would be somewhat like cartelisation.

Investors in metros have access to multiple DPs. But that is not the case in small cities or towns where you have just one or two DPs.

It is a valid point that the choice that one has in places like Mumbai or Delhi one will not have in other places. But we should equally consider the other fact that no DP is saying that my charge in Mumbai will be so much but in Ahmedabad it will be so much. Their charges are uniform across the country. So whatever the intense competition in Mumbai or Delhi drives them to charge is something that is being charged across. If there is only one DP and he is over-charging in a centre some other DP which can conduct operations at a lower cost will see that opportunity and will probably try to get there and take the investors away. So maybe those places don't have so much volumes which is why they are not generating enough competition among DPs.

What we typically do as an exercise every six months is that from the addresses of investors we do a district-wise analysis of how many demat accounts are there in a particular district and feed this information onto DPs so that if a DP feels that, lets say he is also a broker and on his trading terminal a lot of orders are coming from this particular district but the demat accounts are very few in that district he could sense a business opportunity and go there. We try to make this kind of information available to people.

But the feeling persists in many investors that competition has not had an impact as far as costs are concerned. They do not think variation in prices is there. Do we have to look at competition as the main issue, do we have to leave it totally to competition. Is that the best approach?

Prices to be determined by competition is one of the things. We must be alert all the time to any monopoly that may be developing or if there is no monopoly situation and there are indeed many players whether there is any cartelisation taking place. If all DPs are agree to one price and says that we will not go below this and get all consumers to pay this price. That is the second aspect of competion. Whether the players who are supposed to compete with each other are eliminating the competition by forming some kind of a cartel. I think the third thing one has to look at is what kind of signals we are getting from investors in terms of investors joining that system on a consistent basis and wanting to remain in the system. All these factors will combine to tell us the story in any given situation.

So if there is cartelisation and if there is stagnancy in growth of investor accounts you will notice?

We will notice and we will be worried as business people. We will try to find out whether DPs are doing something wrong or what is it.

In terms of numbers, what is the intensity of investor complaints you receive?

About 70-80 per cent of the complaints that we receive are relating to delay in dematerialisation. That is one area where we don't have a proper legal or regulatory force because the depository can do nothing to the registrar or the issuer. We don't have a jurisdiction over them. Even Sebi's ability to take them to civil courts and get some decisions against them is bogged by the fact that our court process are so slow. But we adopt other means like put up a list of top 200 issuers on our website that are worst in terms of delay in dematerialisation. We inform our DPs to tell the investors not to put for dematerialisation their physical shares in these companies because they will lose their physical shares and not get electronic credit. So, by this way at least we keep the investors away from such delays. Since this also involves the reputation of the companeis we think it might have an impact on them.

But the good part of the story is that if you take the top 500 BSE-NSE companies there are very little complaints. The processing time for these companies is tip-top. The complaints are all in the lower segment. That lower segment is huge in terms of numbers.

Monetary fines is an option?

Not for the depository. We don't have the jurisdiction. We have a jurisdiction with DPs since they do business with us. But the issuers does not do any business with us.

You impose no charges on the issuers?

Charges are there when the issuers want to do a corporate action where they have come up with a public, rights or bonus issue. Otherwise their relationship with me is like a post office. When you want to post you pay the post office. The post office can not take any action against you.

So, can you do something against erring issuers when they approach you with the corporation action request?

Actually, these are not the companies which are coming out with corporate actions.

What about the other complaints?

We receive other kinds of complaints also like transaction statement not received. In these cases we use force. We tell the DPs you have to revert to the investor. Then there are investor complaints of non-execution of debit instruction slips by DPs even though he had submitted it on time and as a consequence of which his shares got auctioned and he suffered a loss. In these matters, we carry out an enquiry and if we determine that the DP was at fault then we make the DP pay compensation to the investor.

At times, we find it difficult to determine whether the investor is right or the DP is right. In which case we send the cases for arbitration. We have a arbitration mechanism and we have seen arbitrators give decision at times in favour of investors and at times in favour of  DPs. Where the decision is adverse to the DP then the DP has to pay up. Where it is adverse to the investor we can not do anything. His recourse then is the court.

How many arbitration cases have taken place?

Uptil now, about 50.

In a particular case more than a year back, we had a large number of complaints coming up about one particular DP. There we had to a slightly different kind of action. We told the DP that these are the places from where the complaints have come and we are going to visit that place, put up an advertisement in the local papers and invite the investors and you will have to on the spot satisfy me that you have resolved their complaints. We told the DP you send your representative to these places, contact your investors and resolve their complaints. Sometimes we have to resort to this type of action.

With DPs we can be fairly stringent. Like a stock exchange can with its broker-members. But with companies, like a stock exchange can only suspend or delist a company, we can only suspend the ISIN of a company. But the investor suffers.

There have been a few fraud cases where unauthorised debits have taken place through forged signatures and shares vanish from investors' demat accounts. Mostly, it happens due to DPs lack of diligence.

When such complaints come to us we first see to it that the shares are restored to the investors accounts. Over a period of time people have been discovering new ways of committing a fraud. We are trying to plug them. There is no way of getting one step ahead of the thief. There are three-four things we have done. One is that the debit instruction slip book that investors get from DPs must alone have a request for a new debit instruction slip book. If the investor has lost this debit instruction slip book then the DPs must ask the investor to produce a transaction statement so that no third party can come and pick up the debit instruction book. Secondly, the DP has to verify with the investor about the representative he has sent and if you are not satisfied ask the investor to come personally.

Another thing we found that people were first putting in an application for a change of address so that the transaction statements does not go to that investor. Then put in a fraudulent transfer. Now the fact that the debits have taken place will go to the new address.

So we told the DPs that they have to make the procedure very stringent. Unless they find complete proof and have a audit trail in their office about who authorised the change of address, you will not effect the change. A lot of people who have transferable jobs were bitterly complaining about this. But we had to get stringent.

Then we have an internal system of randomly selecting a portion of investors and dispatching side transaction statements to them. They can compare these with the statements they receive from their DPs. The fact that the DPs know that statements can go from us to anybody acts as a check on them.

We also carry inspections on DPs offices once every six months and check for all kinds of irregularities and the efficacy of their systems. We also require the DPs to carry out internal audits and submit a report to us every quarter. The things to cover in these audit reports are prescribed by us. We take these audit reports during our inspection visits.

These are the precautions we take but ultimately at the end of the day your account is your account and you have to be vigilant and check their accounts. We have a internet-based holding statement view facility which currently 35 DPs are subscribed to and they offer it to their investors. In fact, a lot of other DPs are already offering it directly on their own this facility through their websites.

Can an investor who is not sure of the authenticity of the transaction statements he receives approach NSDL and verify his account?

Absolutely. To give one instance. In the 2001 scam there was a rumour that one of the DPs was involved in the scam and likely to go bust. Investors having demat accounts with that DP were worried about their shares. Realising that this was a genuine fear we send a transaction statement to all the investors of that DP.

You can courier to us or email us if you want a verification. We will generate a statement and send it to the address of the investor in our system.

One of the safeguards for investors is freezing the account. Can an investor freeze just some and not all stocks in his account?

Yes. Not only that but within a stock itself you can freeze a part holding. If you have 1000 shares of a stock and want to freeze only 500 shares you can do it.

You also offer internet-based debit instruction facility to your DPs who offer it to investors. Whats the progress? How safe is it?

When you offer the facility for people to give a debit instruction to you electronically then you have to worry about whether that instruction has indeed come from the person who was supposed to give it. In the physical mode, we take care of this worry by verifying the signature on the debit instruction slip. In the electronic mode, this is not possible. One way we do it is through a smart card, its PIN, and a smart card reader, which is akin to digitially signing your instruction. But the costs for these we felt for ordinary investors will be too high. For investors, we have a password-based facility where the investor can transfer the shares to only one or two specified settlement accounts of their broker and not to any other investors' account. And the broker has to give us an undertaking saying that if by mistake I get shares from this client for which there is no underlying transaction I will return it. Here, even if somebody steals your password he will be able to transfer shares from your account only to the pre-specified broker settlement account. He can't take it into his own account.

This facility has had limited success, like similarly in online trading and online banking. We overestimated users' friendliness with the internet for carrying out transactions. But we haven't abandoned the idea. We believe it will catch on and when it catches on it will grow very fast.

We now have about 30 DPs who have subscribed to this faciltiy. So, theoretically, all their clients can use it. But not many are using it. The numbers are very modest. I think it won't be more than 7,000 investors who are using it. These are fairly transaction-intensive investors. In the last two years about 20 lakh debit instructions have been executed through the internet. Its not bad in the sense that 20 lakh pieces of physical debit instruction slips never happened and no physical verification was done at the DPs offices.

We hope it will catch on. Part of the impetus will be the short settlement cycles. Investors could find it easy to electronically submit their debit instructions rather than go to their DPs offices and hand it physically.

You moved from a value-based charge structure to a fixed rate regime. Does this not subsidise high-value investors at the cost of small-value investors who have to bear a higher rate?

Its a fair question. Any commercial entity has to relate its pricing to its cost. In the automated environment of a depository, whether there is an entry for one share or one lakh shares in a demat acocunt, the computer memory and the computer processing power is the same. Again whether this one share is worth Rs 5,000 or worth five paise the system is neutral to it. Therefore, our costs are driven by how many such entries investors need and how debit and credit transactions take place. It is unrelated to the price of the shares. If the market goes up by 25 per cent there is no reason for me to charge 25 per cent extra because my system requirement is the same.
This is not something that is unusual. There are umpteen examples of public service areas where this principle is followed. Take telephone for example. If you make one call, whether you are Ratan Tata or an ordinary man you pay the same thing because the telephone company says look my costs relating to how big an exchange I put up is not related to who is making this conversation and what is the content of the conversation. We are in this kind of a paradigm. Commercially, it is a correct principle to relate your pricing to cost. Otherwise, you could get hit. Let us assume, in my system I have two crore demat positions and lets say I get two crore transactions. Its possible to imagine a scenario where another 50 lakh investors join me who create two crore demat positions which means I have to double my capacity. The number of transactions, let say, doubles to four crore. But the value of these additions could be one-hundredth of the earlier positions and transactions. So though I double my capacity and incur high costs I will get a revenue which is much less if I charge on the value. I will be forced to increase the charge to the market because I have to meet those costs. It will be ridiculous to explain to the market that my business has doubled and I am increasing my charge.

But do not the risks involved in a low-value transaction differ from high-value transactions? Don't you have to compensate more when a DP's errors or fraudulent transactions is of a higher value and results in a loss that could make him go bust?

There is an insurance policy on behalf of the DPs. The insurance policy premium that the DPs have to pay depends on the value of the shares held and the value of the transactions. So we do not apportion the same premium to DPs across the board. The DPs who have higher value holdings and higher value of transactions have to pay a higher premium.

What are the kind of premium amounts being paid by DPs?

I can not disclose that. But the variation is from one to ten. If some DPs are paying a particular amount then some DPs are paying 10 times that amount.

Which insurance company is this done through?

Uptil till two years, it was the New India Assurance. Since then, it has been Ifco-Tokyo, one of the private insurance companies that have been allowed in general insurance in the country.

A question which is becoming important today is the issue of remat option. Investors wanting to get rid of shares in companies that have got delisted or disappeared can neither sell since these are illiquid nor get it rematerialised (in order to tear off the certificates) due to the non-existence or non-cooperation of the companies. As a result if he wishes to close his demat account he is unable to do so and has to continue bearing the charges.

Like in dematerialisation, if the company delays or refuses to rematerialise we can not do much because we do not have a hold on the companies. To the extent that these companies are reputable ones they will be affected by the complaints received against them and we putting up a list of names who are refusing to rematerialise or delaying it.

For the untracable companies I don't know whether there is any solution. The question is where will you keep these shares and what will the liability of the legal entity who will keep these shares. These shares have to be kept in some account and belong to somebody.

Can NSDL make holdings in these dud shares charge-free?

We don't know if thats possible. We will have to dynamically monitor and classify which shares are dud and which are not.

The only way, currenlty, for an investor who wishes to close his demat account but is unable to get rid of dud shares is to transfer these shares to another person who is active in holding demat shares.

Postal savings schemes�National Saving Certificates (NSCs) and Kisan Vikas Patras (KVPs)�went demat recently. Whats up with it?

It was started as a pilot scheme in certain post offices in Mumbai only. It has had a limited success so far. About Rs 10 crore worth of NSCs and KVPs have been demated so far. That is people have asked for demat instruments. There is no demating of existing instruments. There is only future instruments you can ask for when you buy. Our experience is that we have a little more than 2000 accounts into which these credits have gone. Of these 1000 were existing demat accounts where there were already equity securities . For people who do not have anything to do with the equity market and invest in postal schemes we had to devise a separate scheme. The postal department�s point was that these investors don�t pay anything when I issue them a physical certificate, so there should no charge for them if they have only NSC or KVP in demat account. For them a special demat account is opened into which you can not put any equity shares or other securities.

This has to be done through a DP?

You have to only give the application to the post office. We do the work and send the investor his statement. You can not use the account for anything else.

So the post office is defacto a DP?

It is not. The post department has given the job to us. We have, in turn, outsourced it to one of the registrars, Intime Share Registry,

This account has to be with a DP then?

No. It is a separate account. No debits are allowed and credits are only in KVPs and NSCs. You will have to wait and see what is the government's decision on expanding this.

As in allowing existing demat accountholders to hold postal schemes?

More than the existing holders our point to them has been that we need to make it mandatory that from certain post offices only demat will be available. This is the segement of the market with which we are dealing which is not necessarily aware of the demat facility. It will have its initial hesitation and so on and so forth. If the government feels that it is in its interest to do it then it can be considered. After all you are not changing anything. Earlier, you were getting a certificate. Now you will get a statement of account. He still gets a piece of paper. The convenience to him here is that he doesn't have to preserve it for six years and produce it for discharge. The records are electronic. If you lose your account statement you can ask for a duplicate one.

Another suggestion we made to them is that they can use our system which is keeping track of maturity dates and automtically send the cheque to the investors a day or two in advance of the maturity date. Today, you have to keep a track of the maturity date. If you go 10 days or three months late its too bad. You will not get interest for those days.

We have also made a suggestion that as an alternate electronic credit of the redemption amount can be made to the investors' bank accounts. All this is possible in the depository system.

How many post offices offer this facility currently? Is the number likely to go up?

We have it in about 35 post offices in Mumbai at present. It is in the government's hands to increase the number of post offices.

How has our markets developed? What would you like to tell investors?

Five years ago, if you were investing in equities in addition to being concerned with the price at which you were buying or selling your shares you had to be worried about the problems of delays in transfers and bad deliveries. Since then, what has happened in an investor's life is that today when he invests he has to only worry about the transaction cost and the price of the transaction. Brokerage rates which were as high as 2.5 per cent in the physical environment because of the threat of being stuck with bad deliveries. Now he doesn't face that risk because of which the brokerage rates have reduced substantially. This in turn benefits the investor.

But I would like to tell the investors that do not ever assume that this system will make the world fraud-proof. The systems are run by human beings and as long as there are human beings in a chain of transactions there will be a tendency to do things by going the wrong way rather than the straight path. And, therefore the best guarding for your assets is you yourself. You have to be vigilant. It is not to say that the system will not provide satisfaction or have safeguards. But it will be foolhardy to rely only on systems. It is always good to take your own precautions.

The impact of the depository system has been two-fold. One is in the area of settlements where the benefits are well-known. But I think the benefit has come from another area too which is very important from society's point of view. Before NSE and NSDL were built in this country people could not believe that large automated systems with nationwide applicability are a feasibility in this country. Now because these systems have been built and people see them as successful in implementation they are beginning to question if you can do it in this area then why not in other areas.

June 13, 2017

What's happening in Madhya Pradesh wrt rule of law

"napm india" <napmindia@gmail.com>
Date: Jun 13, 2017 6:09 PM
Subject: Press Note | June 13, 2017: Leading Activists Found Shocking Anarchy in Madhya Pradesh leading to and following Death of Farmers in Police Firing & Torture
To:
Cc:

> Press Note on Mandsaur Police Firing : 13th of June
> New Delhi | June 13, 2017: Following a call given by Jai Kisan Andonlan of Swaraj Abhiyan, NAPM, Kisan Sangharsh Samiti of MP, Bandhua Mukti Morcha and several farmer organisations, a delegation of their representatives went to visit Mandsaur in Madhya Pradesh where 7 farmers were killed in a police firing on 6th of June. The delegation comprised about 25 representatives from Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Bihar, UP, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi, besides local farmers and farmer leaders. These included Ms. Medha Patkar, Swami Agnivesh, Dr. Sunilam, Paras Saklecha, Kalpana Parulekar, Avik Saha, Ajit Singh, Balakrishnan and Yogendra Yadav.
>
> What follows are some of the key observations made by this delegation.
>
> Law & Order, Legal & Human Rights – Nightmarish Situation
>
> ·         Democratic Rights & Human Rights at an unbelievable low in MP – Constitution & Laws of India seem not to apply here – has it ceded from the Union of India?
>
> ·         Police & Civil Administration of Ratlam District keep strong surveillance on, illegally stop (from visiting Mandsaur) & arrest activists like Medha Patkar, Swami Agnivesh, Yogendra Yadav & Avik Saha, with lifelong adherence to peace and non-violence, on ground of breach of peace!!
>
> ·         In agitation-free Neemuch District, police illegally prevent Yogendra Yadav, Dr. Sunilam, Avik Saha & Ajit Yadav from interacting with villagers; use sheer brute force to push them out of MP into Rajasthan
>
> ·         Delegation interacts with farmer leaders and activists and finds complete break-down of rule of law; reign of terror as Districts affected by and surrounding locations of farmers agitation cordoned off and jungle law implemented
>
> ·         Independent persons and agencies barred entry while full might of state appears to be influencing & torturing witnesses to the murder of farmers by police, causing disappearance of material evidence and running an extortion racket by intimidation
>
>  
> Probable Background Causes of Present Situation – Deep Rooted & Long Neglected Life & Livelihood Issues of Farmers
>
> ·         Already un-remunerative and further downward spiraling prices of all produce (Report annexed), despite MP reporting highest agricultural growth in the country and winning prizes, seems to have lead to wide spread discontent; State Government's inaction in this crisis fuelled unrest
>
> ·         Non-fulfillment of ruling BJP's Manifesto promise of 50% profit above cost price compounded with the slow down of purchasing power of traders in mandis due to demonetisation completed the cycle of despair, disillusionment and discontent
>
> ·         Local reports complained of extreme bureaucracy at mandis & looming threat of disentitlement of rights; e.g. compulsory registration of seller-farmers only through Aadhar, downgrading of ration entitlement under PDS ration if sales above 50 quintals made, 50% payment through bank, which forthwith deducts all loans
>
> ·         Drought of 2 consecutive years have severely depleted the MP farmers and have led to the 4th highest farmers' suicides in the country in 2015; with added pressure of loan repayment and almost 50% price fall in produce, farmers have reached the end of their tether
>
> ·         Non-payment & whimsical small payments of insurance for crop loss made farmers desperate for redressal of their financial grievances    
>
> Murder of Farmers by State of Madhya Pradesh  
>
> ·         Since the State has already admitted that firing was done without any formal order and without following due process, the death of farmers in police firing is nothing but murder by machinery of state
>
> ·         The heinous and brutal killing of a farmer by beating and torture in the hands of police, after the gunning down of 5 farmers, is unbelievably shocking & can only be termed state sponsored terrorism
>
> ·         It is sad to note that Madhya Pradesh has learnt no lesson from the findings of the Commissions that investigated the Multai Firing during Congress regime, when 23 farmers were brutally gunned down; Again, there was no dialogue with the protestors before firing; such dialogue could have easily prevented this unnecessary loss of life
>
>
> We Demand
>
> ·         The State of Madhya Pradesh must immediately ensure remunerative price for all crops grown in Madhya Pradesh in fulfillment of the promise made by BJP in its manifesto (cost + 50%) and also ensure guaranteed purchase of the produce through market stabilization funds and other mechanisms; agriculture is a state subject and Madhya Pradesh, like Karnataka can ensure relief for farmers through agriculture price commission and allied statutory interventions  
>
> ·         We demand that farmers of Madhya Pradesh be given a one-time waiver of all loans, which, coupled with remunerative prices, will pull them out of the vicious cycle of debt and death though debt-trap
>
> ·         The State of Madhya Pradesh must immediately, in consultation with farmers organizations (1) appoint an Independent Commission headed by a sitting High Court Judge (2) prepare comprehensive TOR of the Commission to go into all circumstances that lead to the murder of farmers by police firing
>
> ·         The State of Madhya Pradesh must immediately register murder case against all policemen and administrative officers who ordered firing on farmers and executed the order
>
> ·         The State of Madhya Pradesh must immediately withdraw all cases registered against farmers in connection with the Farmers Movement in Madhya Pradesh during 1st to 10th June 2017
>
> ·         The State of Madhya Pradesh must immediately ensure that comprehensive crop insurance is provided for all crops grown in Madhya Pradesh and not just a few crops as presently stipulated under the PMFBY
>
> ·         Opposition parties like the Congress who have extended support to the farmers must establish their credential by ensuring that in the states of Punjab and Karnataka, where they are in power, there is no shooting on and killing of farmers, MSP at cost + 50% is given in terms of the recommendation of the Swaminathan Commission  and all loans of farmers are waived
the&

> National Alliance of People's Movements
> National Office : 6/6, Jangpura B, Mathura Road, New Delhi 110014
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> Twitter : @napmindia

June 11, 2017

Brokerage firms' Jan-Mar performance

A story I wrote last week on brokerage firms' Jan-Mar 2017 financials -- http://www.cogencis.com/differentiators/ShareNews.aspx?newsId=937744

Institutional brokerages Jan-Mar PAT growth better than retail firms
    Profits of large domestic brokerage firms with a heavy dependence on retail clients fell in Jan-Mar even as those with a decent institutional clientele saw profits rise.
    During the quarter, trading turnover rose across the board on stock exchanges.
    The mixed performance of large brokerage firms followed a slide in the profits across the board in the December quarter.
    Cash market turnover on the National Stock Exchange of India rose 20% on quarter to 14.38 trln rupees in Jan-Mar, which was much better compared to the 10% on-quarter decline seen in Oct-Dec.
    Key factors driving up stock market trading volumes were a sharp rise in benchmark equity indices and increase in trading activity by institutional investors.
    Investor sentiments picked up in Jan-Mar after the previous quarter had seen it taking a big hit. The December quarter had seen subdued stock market activity due to the demonetisation-induced fall in corporate earnings in many sectors. Also, foreign funds outflow in Oct-Dec, on the back of uncertainties around Donald Trump's win in the US presidential elections.
    Net inflow by foreign portfolio investors in the equity cash market was 365 bln rupees in Jan-Mar, compared with a net outflow of 343 bln rupees in Oct-Dec.
    On gross turnover basis, an indicator of overall trading activity, FPIs traded more in Jan-Mar.
    The sum of FPIs' purchases and sales rose 16% on quarter to 6.44 trln rupees in Jan-Mar. This was an improvement over the 5% on-quarter fall in the previous quarter.
    Net inflow of mutual funds into the cash market fell 64% on quarter to 115 bln rupees in Jan-Mar. But they still fueled the trading momentum in the stock market as their gross cash market turnover--sum of purchases and sales--shot up by 31% on quarter to 2.34 trln rupees during the March quarter.
    The equity derivatives market of the NSE too, saw total turnover rise by 11% on quarter to 276.24 trln rupees in Jan-Mar. NSE makes up for over 99% of all equity derivatives trading in the country,
    BSE's cash market turnover jumped up 132% on quarter to 4.23 bln rupees in Jan-Mar, which stock market analysts was aided in a big part by bulk trades involving transfer of shares by promoters.
    In the previous quarter, BSE had seen it cash market turnover fall 12% on quarter to 1.82 trln rupees.

BROKERAGES' PROFITS
    Out of four large brokerage firms, for which Jan-Mar earnings data was available from their listed parent companies, two firms recorded on-quarter rise in profit from broking activities while two firms saw it fall on quarter.
    All these four brokerage firms saw a 9-14% on-quarter fall in profit in the December quarter.
    ICICI Securities, which operates ICICIdirect, the largest online retail broking platform in the country, is pre-dominantly dependant on revenues from its retail clients.
    The firm saw its net profit decline 6% to 830 mln rupees in Jan-Mar. It was, however, less severe than the 11% on-quarter fall in net profit recorded by the brokerage firm in the previous quarter.
    Faring better was Kotak Securities, having a decent institutional business along with national retail operations. The firm's net profit in Jan-Mar stood at 1.21 bln rupees, up sharply from 850 mln rupees in Oct-Dec.
    Kotak Securities' net profit had fallen 11% on quarter in Oct-Dec. Revenues rose 28% on quarter to 3.67 bln rupees in Jan-Mar.
    According to the firm, the firm had 1.4 mln secondary market customers at the end of March, up from 1.3 mln rupees a quarter ago. The number of its branchises and franchises, however, declined to 1,281 from 1,300.
    Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd carries out equity broking operations through its subsidiary, Edelweiss Broking, and also has a significant institutional business. The firm also other subsidiaries, including one into commodity broking business.
    In Jan-Mar, the subsidiaries of Edelweiss Financial, collectively clocked a net profit of 400 mln rupees, up 29% from the previous quarter. Their collective revenues rose 12% to 2.49 bln rupees during the March quarter.
    Retail-oriented brokerage firm, Motilal Oswal Securities, earned 1.98 bln rupees as revenue from broking activities in Jan-Mar, up 8% from the December quarter, according to an earnings presentation of the parent company, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, which is listed on the stock exchanges.
    The broking firm said the March quarter saw disproportionate high cash volumes in the market due to large-scale inter-promoter transfers.
    This led to a muted revenue growth during the quarter and the broking firm's net profit fell to 180 mln rupees in Jan-Mar from 214 mln rupees in Oct-Dec recording a 16% decline.
    In the December quarter, Motilal Oswal Securities had seen its net profit fall by a lower degree of 9% on quarter.
    These four broking firms are among the top 20 broking firms in terms of numbers of unique client codes held with the NSE. Every investor account of a brokerage firm carries a unique client code at the time of transacting on the stock exchanges.
    Data from NSE showed that as on Apr 30, these four brokerage firms had 1.20 mln unique client codes, accounting for around 26% of aggregate across all NSE brokerage firms.
    All in all, the March quarter saw an across-the-board rise in turnover on the stock exchanges and institutional investors traded more than they did in the previous quarter.
    But since retail investors were not as active as the institutional investors during the quarter, the brokerage firms with heavy reliance on retail clients did not do as well as those with a better retail-institutional mix of business.

June 09, 2017

Flows in balanced MF schemes increase multi-fold in Jan-May

An article I wrote for the news organisation I work for currently.

Flows in balanced MF schemes increase multi-fold in Jan-May
    Flows into balanced schemes of mutual funds have shown extra-ordinary growth in the last three years, with the first five months of the current calendar year witnessing more net inflow than in the whole of last year.
    As the stock market continues to run up there is a growing number of investors who perceive balanced funds to be less riskier than equity funds and at the same time giving higher returns compared to income funds, said Vivek Mahajan, head of research at Aditya Birla Money.
    Mutual fund investors are turning slightly wary of the high valuations in the stock market and are getting cautious by turning to balanced funds.
    Balanced funds are hybrid in nature investing in both, equities and debt securities, with an orientation towards either. An equity-oriented balanced fund, would have 50-65% exposure to equities and balance in debt, and vice-versa for debt-oriented balanced funds.
    The balanced funds recorded net inflows of 286 bln rupees in Jan-May this year, exceeding the net inflow of 247 bln rupees in entire calendar 2016. This is the highest in over seven years, data of flows from Association of Mutual Funds in India showed (see table).
    In May, assets under management in balanced funds crossed the one-trln-rupee mark ending the month at 1.02 trln rupees, more than double from the year ago level.
    Equity funds have recorded net inflows worth 335 bln rupees in Jan-May while income funds have seen net inflows of just 230 bln rupees.
    Last year, balanced funds saw net inflows grow 16% on year, compared to 7.7 times on-year growth in income funds' net inflow and a 46% on-year fall in net inflows in equity funds.
    But it was in 2015 when flows in balanced funds increased dramatically. In that year, the net inflow in balanced funds jumped 3.7 times on year to 214 bln rupees, even as equity funds' net inflow increased just 74% on year and that in debt funds declined by 37%.
    According to analysts, the relationship managers in financial services firms and equity brokerage firms which sell financial products to retail investors find it easy to market balanced funds to existing and new investors as a safe product.
    Since November last year, when demonetisation made investments in real estate un-attractive, and with gold prices continuing to be subdued, the entire surplus investible surplus of most investors have been ploughing into equities and debt instruments.
    In their aggressive marketing of systematic investment plans, mutual funds are giving balanced funds the same importance as they typically give to equity funds.
    For instance, in the market commentary of its latest monthly factsheet for the current month, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund said since the uncertainty of global events cannot be ruled out the equity market could be volatile in the near term and that new or first time investors looking for equity exposure could consider SIP in ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund.
    All balanced funds which invest minimum 65% in equities qualify as equity schemes under tax rules. Tax norms allow for zero long-term capital gains liability and tax-free dividends for equity schemes of mutual funds. The tax norms do not factor in the net exposure to equities after the use of equity derivatives to hedge.
    But some mutual funds also offer a variant of balanced funds which in law are equity funds but which have a net equity exposure of less than 65%. Typically known as balanced advantage funds these schemes provide tax benefits to investors by having 65% of their corpus as investments in equity shares at all times and additional significant exposure in the equity derivatives market which hedge a good part of their equity holdings.
    For instance, ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund, which had assets to the tune of 184 bln rupees in April, had 65.11% of it invested in equities and the balance in debt securities and money market instruments. But the net equity exposure of the scheme was 50.11% since it had equity derivatives positions in the form of stock futures and index futures and options to the extent of 15% of its AUM.
    The trend of robust inflows in balanced funds may continue for some more time till the current market rally lasts, according to Aditya Birla Money's Mahajan.
    Gold ETFs or exchange traded funds, which offer investors a non-physical way of investing in gold, have been steadily losing assets in the last four years. In Jan-May of current year, too, gold ETFs have seen net outflow of 3 bln rupees.
    The table below lists the trend in net inflow in select mutual fund
categories in the last few calendar years
            Net inflow (in bln rupees)
       --------------------------------------
       Balanced   Equity   Income   Gold ETFs
       --------   ------   ------   ---------
2017*     286      335      230       -3
2016      247      463     1375       -9
2015      214      851      178       -9
2014       57      490      285      -17
2013      -11      -87      270      -18
2012       -4     -141      567       18
2011       13       68     -122       40
2010        8     -162     -835       17
* till May                       
Data source: AMFI



May 11, 2017

Citizens of India have a right towards genuine Election process


http://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/NewsDetail/index/2/10637/90-Seconds-Is-All-It-Takes-Delhi-Assemb
"...there are also substantial number of well informed scientists and technologists who believe that even those machines which are stand alone, not networked and hardwired, as an Indian EVM is, can be tampered with. These are well-intentioned people, they want to save and strengthen democracy. They cannot be treated as criminals or enemies. If this attitude is not changed we will progressively weaken the Indian democracy, and people will lose trust in their vote. A change of attitude is required...."

Very true.

Its not about AAP, BSP, Congress or any other party asking questions to Election Commission on the tamepring of EVMs.

It is first and foremost to us, the citizens of this country, to whom the Election Commission needs to prove beyond all doubts that the EVMs can not be tampered illegally by vested political and corporate interests.

And, if the Election Commission of India can not convince us citizens then we have every right to expect the voting in all elections in the country to take place only through physical ballots.

The Election Commission of India needs to get this clear -- THE CITIZENS HAVE AN ABSOLUTE RIGHT TO KNOW WHETHER THEIR VOTE IS GOING TO THE PERSON WHOM THEY VOTED FOR

May 01, 2017

Growth trend in TCS-Infosys verticals' annual EBIT margins

An analytical story I contributed recently to the media organisation I work for currently:

Segment dynamics weigh on TCS and Infosys margins growth

Over the last 4-5 quarters the stock market has accepted the grim reality of sluggish revenue growth in the information technology sector on the back of slowdown in business from banking and financial services clients as well as those from the retail and consumer major challenges and events.
There are also expectations of hi-tech and telecom business driving the growth engine of the software companies. Upsides from high end digital and next gen services offerings are expected by most analysts from the large software companies in the long term.
But how did past expectations play out last year. A fine reading of segment-wise margin numbers of the two largest Indian software companies, Infosys Ltd and Tata Consultancy Services Ltd, whose Jan-Mar quarter results are out, brings out interesting revelations.
Breaking down the segment-wise EBIT margin numbers shows Infosys and TCS getting better EBIT margins in 2016-17 from their manufacturing and retail verticals as compared to the previous year, according to an analysis of segment results data.
On the other hand, the EBIT margins fell in the verticals of banking and financial services, energy and utlities, communication and hi-tech for the two software majors.
The net impact was adverse since manufacturing and retail verticals had a 27% revenue share in both the companies while banking and financial services, energy and utilities, communication and hi-tech verticals together ha 57% revenue share each in Infosys and TCS.
Analysts have downgraded earnings growth for TCS since it delivered an earnings before interest and tax margin of 25.7% in 2016-17 (Apr-Mar) which was lower that the company’ stated EBIT margin guidance band of 26-28%.
Infosys' performance has invited similar reactions from the analyst community so far. Axis Capital said in its post-results research note that Infosys' margins performance in Jan-Mar and its lowered guidance for 2017-18 were below the brokerage firm's expectations.
The EBIT margin from the manufacturing vertical rose on year to 24.6% from 22.5% for Infosys, and to 28.6% from 26.8% for TCS, in 2016-17, an analysis of segment results data from Cogencis Corporate Fundamental Database showed. The earnings before interest and tax margin was considered as the operating margin in the analysis of the segment-wise financials.
Revenue from manufacturing clients accounted for 11% of total revenues for both the major software companies. The retail and consumer vertical also delivered better operating margins for Infosys and TCS in 2016-17 as compared to the previous year.
However, in terms of on-year revenue growth in 2016-17 this vertical, which contributed nearly 17% each to Infosys’ and TCS’s total revenue, saw growth fall more sharply as compared to 2015-16 compared to most other verticals.
Traditional retailers in developed markets, the main clients for the large Indian software companies, have undergone challenging times in the last one year.
Deceleration in retail and consumer vertical weighted on overall growth for 2016-17 for TCS, said Prabhudas Lilladher brokerage in its research note.
TCS, analysts said, has already cautioned of structural headwinds in this vertical going forward.
In the case of Infosys, Axis Capital noted that for Infosys retail and consumer vertical was likely to remain soft with volatile performance throughout 2017-18. "Despite headwinds, opportunity exists around data analytics, legacy transformation and digital initiatives," the brokerage firm noted.
The 2016-17 performance of the banking and financial services vertical, the biggest contributor to revenues for both the companies, was hit the hardest, due to caution in spending by the large global banking and financial service clients.
For TCS, the EBIT margin from coming from this vertical, which contributed 41% of the company's revenues, declined sharply to 27.6% in 2016-17 from 29.1% in the previous year.
In its post Jan-Mar quarter results interaction with analysts, TCS tried to allay concerns for the banking and financial services vertical. The company attributed the on-quarter decline in revenue in Jan-Mar from this vertical to the closure of one project and said it was confident of pick-up in growth from Apr-Jun quarter of 2017-18 itself, according to a post-results research note by IDBI Capital.
Infosys, which had 27% of 2016-17 revenues coming from banking and financial services vertical, has said recently that it is more optimistic on the US markets given the rate hikes which it expects would lead to an uptick in budgets of banking and finance clients in Jul-Dec.
"In Europe, (Infosys) management sees opportunity from catch-up exercise by banks (they are behind the curve in tech adoption), and (from) the under penetration in Europe," said Axis Capital in its research note.
The energy and utilities vertical hit Infosys' EBIT margins hard in 2016-17 as the margin from the vertical fell to 28.7% from 29.7%.
For Infosys, margins from its hi-tech vertical also came under a lot of pressure. The EBIT margin recorded a sharp decline to 24.9% in 2016-17 from 26.6% in 2015-16. Expectations from analysts were high from this segment, but performance on the ground did not match up.
With slowdown in revenue growth being the expected norm in 2017-18, it will be the margin trajectory which will hold the key for the two largest Indian software companies.